Physician-Demand Forecasts / Rx Forecasts
There is a plan out there that will make your new Rx brand much more profitable than it would otherwise be. How can you find this plan, which will allow your company to fully exploit the fruits of its costly investment in R&D?
Successful companies in other industries use test markets to launch their brands more profitably while simultaneously reducing risk. Although test markets are extremely expensive and limited in scope, a well-controlled test market will produce a reasonably accurate forecast of national sales. Multiple test markets can be used to forecast sales under a few different marketing scenarios.
Unfortunately, test marketing is not an option for unapproved new pharmaceutical brands. As a result, most pharmaceutical companies do a very poor job of forecasting Year I Rx’s—and even accept lousy forecasts as unavoidable.
Bad forecasting has its consequences. It results in launch plans that under produce. Long-term opportunities are missed. People end up being rewarded or punished based on the magnitude and direction of mis-forecasting.
However, not all launches suffer from these problems. Some have been supported by an approach that is even better than in-market testing—ScriptCAST. ScriptCAST is based on a proven process for forecasting how doctors will respond in the real world to different positionings/profiles (alternate copays, step edits, prior authorizations) and alternate promotional plans.
With ScriptCAST, a marketer can launch a new brand in a limitless number of ways in risk-free virtual reality and see which approach generates the most business—before launching in the real world. The forecasts produced using ScriptCAST have, on average, fallen within +/- 3% of actual Year I Rx’s—greater accuracy than even test markets can achieve.
ScriptCAST brings credibility to sales forecasting, manages expectations, and helps plan production. It can even result in significantly higher profits if it is used to find the most efficient way to achieve the organization’s feasible financial goals.