Using ScriptCAST™ When Label Claims Are Uncertain
Often, a company does not have a high degree of confidence as to which label claims will comprise the approved labeling from among the array of possibilities. There can be tremendous swings in a new brand’s potential depending on the approved labeling. Consequently, many marketers want to know what the sales potential will be for any feasible combination of claims that could be approved. PBE has developed a multivariate methodology to address this need through ScriptCAST simulation.
The multivariate methodology involves creating an experimental design that enables one to forecast filled Rx’s for all possible combinations of label claims (and copays, step edits, prior authorizations) by testing a minimum number of combinations. Each profile (combination of claims) is shown to a separate group of doctors, i.e., each doctor in the research sees and evaluates only one profile.
The data generated from the doctor research are translated into real-world behavior, just as in a single concept ScriptCAST exercise. This results in quantifying the maximum potential share that can be achieved by launching with any potential profile (and any given distribution of copays, step edits, prior authorizations), and the uptake curve for that profile. The simulators for each combination will forecast TRx’s for any given promotional plan.
The multivariate methodology, coupled with the forecasting powers of ScriptCAST simulation also makes it possible to place a real world dollar value on any single claim or combination of claims. This makes ScriptCAST simulation a very valuable tool to use years before a product is launched, when a company is deciding which clinical trials to pursue in order to enhance the brand’s commercial prospects.
Copay Elasticity, Step Edit Elasticity, Prior Authorization Elasticity
The ScriptCAST Simulation Methodology can be and has been used to produce copay elasticity curves, step edit elasticity curves, and prior authorization elasticity curves with real-world validity. These curves can be generated through ScriptCAST simulation using two different research approaches.
If the label claims are up in the air, the multivariate methodology is used to produce the copay elasticity curve, the step edit elasticity curve, and/or the prior authorization elasticity curve for any combination of claims. Using this methodology, label claims and copay, step edits and/or prior authorizations are systematically varied in the field research. Each doctor sees and evaluates only one combination of claims and copays, step edits and/or prior authorizations. Elasticity curves are created for any possible combination of label claims by fitting a curve to the forecasts (for that combination of claims) at each tested point.
This results in forecasts of maximum potential share and TRx’s at each copay, step edit and/or prior authorization point. A curve is fitted to the forecasts at the tested prices so that demand can be forecasted at intermediate price points within the range of the ones tested.