How a ScriptCAST™ Simulator Functions
ScriptCAST simulation follows this general form:
It starts by answering the question:
- If we had all the promotional resources we could use, what is the maximum share the brand could ever achieve under current market conditions* with this particular positioning concept?
It then answers the question:
- How much of this maximum potential share will we actually achieve at any point in time by implementing a given promotional plan?
Being able to calculate a new brand’s maximum potential is extremely important. A brand’s potential is determined by how doctors will behave after being exposed to its positioning concept and price. Therefore, if one can determine the true maximum potential share for any given concept and price, one can select the most productive concept from among those that have come to mind and identify the optimal price for that concept!
However, to forecast and plan with precision, one must also account for how much of the brand’s potential (under a given concept/price) would actually be achieved at any point in time for a given promotional scenario.
ScriptCAST simulators account for the impact of promotion through an uptake curve. An uptake curve relates the individual elements of the promotional mix (details, samples, journals, etc.) to how much of the brand’s potential will be achieved at any point in time.
Three considerations go into developing uptake curves for ScriptCAST simulators:
- How quickly will potential triers write the first script in response to promotional pressure? In other words, how many potential triers will write in response to the first detail, how many in response to the second, the third and so forth?
- If a doctor tries the new brand, how will its share of his category prescriptions change over time in response to ongoing promotional pressure?
- How will the uptake curve be changed as a function of the intensity of promotional pressure applied during the launch. In categories with certain characteristics, low promotional pressure during launch – as happens with small sales forces – will decrease the brand’s maximum potential.
Both a brand’s maximum potential and its uptake curve are dependent on the message that is communicated to doctors. The reason ScriptCAST simulators are so exacting is that they do an excellent job of representing how physicians will respond to the brand’s message at different promotional levels.
* Note: Some ScriptCAST simulators were set up to account for expected changes in the market environment. These simulators produced highly accurate forecasts.