The ScriptCast™ forecasting model currently has 30 in-market
validations
with an average error of less than 3% of forecast vs. actual
|
Product Category |
Actual |
Forecast |
% Error |
| 1 |
Contraceptive (Launch Year) |
215.2K (units) |
215.7K (units) |
0.23% |
| 2 |
Antimigraine (DTC) |
24.9% (repeat) |
25.1% (repeat) |
0.80% |
| 3 |
Post-Menopausal (DTC) 800# |
0.7% (targ. aud.) |
0.616% (targ. aud.) |
-12.00% |
| 4 |
Antihypertensive (Launch Year) |
3.05 (share) |
3.1 (share) |
1.64% |
| 5 |
Antihypertensive (Restage) |
2.9 (share) |
2.9 (share) |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Antifungal (Launch Year) |
7.7 (share) |
7.8 (share) |
1.30% |
| 7 |
Antihypertensive (Competitor) |
8.0 (share) |
7.9 (share) |
-1.25% |
| 8 |
Antihypertensive (Budget Cut) |
2.43 (share) |
2.5 (share) |
2.88% |
| 9 |
Cholesterol Reducer
(12th Month NRx Retail Share) |
33.3 (share) |
34.1 (share) |
2.40% |
| |
(24th Month NRx Retail Share) |
43.4 (share) |
41.7 (share) |
-3.92% |
| |
(36th Month NRx Retail Share) |
48.7 (share) |
46.9 (share) |
-3.70% |
| |
(48th Month NRx Retail Share) |
50.7 (share) |
51.0 (share) |
0.59% |
| 10 |
Contraceptive (New Detailing & Sampling Plan) |
4,455,832 |
4,373,399 |
-1.85% |
| 11 |
NSAID (New Detailing & Sampling Plan) |
2,535,623 |
2,581,266 |
1.80% |
| 12 |
Osteoporotic (Launch Year) |
$48.3M |
$49.4M |
2.28% |
| 13 |
Cholesterol Reducer (Average of 12 Monthly Forecasts) |
1.41 (share) |
1.37 (share) |
-2.84% |
| 14 |
NSAID (Launch Year) |
20.5 (share) |
21.3 (share) |
3.90% |
| 15 |
Antibiotic (Increment) |
4.19 (share pts.) |
4.36 (share pts.) |
4.06% |
| 16 |
Oncologic (Volumetric Increment) |
- |
- |
3.10% |
| 17 |
Seasonal Allergy (Launch Year) |
1.72 (share) |
1.62 (share) |
-5.81% |
| 18 |
Asthma (DTU) |
20.1% (incremental) |
19.5% (incremental) |
-2.99% |
| 19 |
NSAID (New Category; TRx share at 12th month) |
33.21 (share) |
33.06 (share) |
-0.45% |
| 20 |
Antihypertensive (NRx share at 12th month) |
0.67 (share) |
0.70 (share) |
4.48% |
| 21 |
Antihypertensive (New Indication; Launch Year) |
$31.1M |
$32.2M |
3.54% |
| 22 |
Prostate (Launch Year) |
$24.3M |
$23.7M |
-2.47% |
| 23 |
% Off-Label Usage for Antipsychotic |
31.30% |
30.80% |
-1.60% |
| 24 |
New Formulation for Anti-Anxiety (1st 18 months NRx’s) |
295.2K |
296.8K |
0.54% |
| 25 |
Oncologic |
6.1 (incr. share pts.) |
5.9 (incr.share pts.) |
-3.28% |
| 26 |
Psychotropic (DTC) |
0.973M (incremental) |
1.028M (incremental) |
5.65% |
| 27 |
Gynecological Device |
$4.1MM |
$4.2MM |
2.44% |
| 28 |
Neurological (Launch Year Annuity Value) |
4.04% (projected) |
4.17% |
3.22% |
| 29 |
Dyslipidemic (Launch Year) |
2,353,187 TRx's |
2,291,201 TRx's |
-2.63% |
| 30 |
Antimigraine New Formulation (Launch Year TRx Share) |
0.958 (share) |
0.953 (share) |
-0.52% |
| |
(Year 2 TRx Share) |
1.214 (share) |
1.252 (share) |
3.13% |
| 31 |
Epilepsy (Launch Year - 12th Month TRx Share) |
1.151 (TRx Share) |
1.184 (TRx Share) |
2.87% |
| |
(18th Month TRx Share) |
1.508 (TRx Share) |
1.501 (TRx Share) |
-0.46% |
| Mean Absolute Percentage Error |
2.68% |
