Forecast Validations

ScriptCAST IN-MARKET FORECAST VALIDATIONS

Mean Absolute Percentage Error : 2.65%

Product Category Actual Forecast % Error
1 Contraceptive (Launch Year) 215.2K (units) 215.7K (units) 0.23%
2 Antimigraine (DTC) 24.9% (repeat) 25.1% (repeat) 0.80%
3 Post-Menopausal (DTC) 800# 0.7% (targ. aud.) 0.616% (targ. aud.) -12.00%
4 Antihypertensive (Launch Year) 3.05 (share) 3.1 (share) 1.64%
5 Antihypertensive (Restage) 2.9 (share) 2.9 (share) 0.00%
6 Antifungal (Launch Year) 7.7 (share) 7.8 (share) 1.30%
7 Antihypertensive (Competitor) 8.0 (share) 7.9 (share) -1.25%
8 Antihypertensive (Budget Cut) 2.43 (share) 2.5 (share) 2.88%
9 Cholesterol Reducer
(12th Month NRx Retail Share)
33.3 (share) 34.1 (share) 2.40%
(24th Month NRx Retail Share) 43.4 (share) 41.7 (share) -3.92%
(36th Month NRx Retail Share) 48.7 (share) 46.9 (share) -3.70%
(48th Month NRx Retail Share) 50.7 (share) 51.0 (share) 0.59%
10 Contraceptive (New Detailing & Sampling Plan) 4,455,832 4,373,399 -1.85%
11 NSAID (New Detailing & Sampling Plan) 2,535,623 2,581,266 1.80%
12 Osteoporotic (Launch Year) $48.3M $49.4M 2.28%
13 Cholesterol Reducer (Average of 12 Monthly Forecasts) 1.41 (share) 1.37 (share) -2.84%
14 NSAID (Launch Year) 20.5 (share) 21.3 (share) 3.90%
15 Antibiotic (Increment) 4.19 (share pts.) 4.36 (share pts.) 4.06%
16 Oncologic (Volumetric Increment) 3.10%
17 Seasonal Allergy (Launch Year) 1.72 (share) 1.62 (share) -5.81%
18 Asthma (DTU) 20.1% (incremental) 19.5% (incremental) -2.99%
19 NSAID (New Category; TRx share at 12th month) 33.21 (share) 33.06 (share) -0.45%
20 Antihypertensive (NRx share at 12th month) 0.67 (share) 0.70 (share) 4.48%
21 Antihypertensive (New Indication; Launch Year) $31.1M $32.2M 3.54%
22 Prostate (Launch Year) $24.3M $23.7M -2.47%
23 % Off-Label Usage for Antipsychotic 31.30% 30.80% -1.60%
24 New Formulation for Anti-Anxiety (1st 18 months NRx’s) 295.2K 296.8K 0.54%
25 Oncologic 6.1 (incr. share pts.) 5.9 (incr.share pts.) -3.28%
26 Psychotropic (DTC) 0.973M (incremental) 1.028M (incremental) 5.65%
27 Gynecological Device $4.1MM $4.2MM 2.44%
28 Neurological (Launch Year Annuity Value) 4.04% (projected) 4.17% 3.22%
29 Dyslipidemic (Launch Year) 2,353,187 TRx’s 2,291,201 TRx’s -2.63%
30 Antimigraine New Formulation (Launch Year TRx Share) 0.958 (share) 0.953 (share) -0.52%
(Year 2 TRx Share) 1.214 (share) 1.252 (share) 3.13%
31 Epilepsy (Launch Year – 12th Month TRx Share) 1.151 (TRx Share) 1.184 (TRx Share) 2.87%
(18th Month TRx Share) 1.508 (TRx Share) 1.501 (TRx Share) -0.46%
32 Rheumatology Biologic (12th Month % of Class Leader) 7.9 (% of Class Leader) 7.8 (% of Class Leader) -1.27%
(18th Month % of Class Leader) 10.9 (% of Class Leader) 11.2 (% of Class Leader) 2.75%
Mean Absolute Percentage Error 2.65%