Using ScriptCAST™ When Label Claims Are Uncertain

Often, a company will not have a high degree of confidence as to which label claims will comprise the approved labeling, from among the array of possibilities. There can be tremendous swings in a new brand’s potential depending on the approved labeling. Consequently, many marketers would like to know what the sales potential would be for any feasible combination of claims that could be approved. PBE has developed a methodology called QUANJOINT™ to address this need through ScriptCAST Simulation.

The QUANJOINT methodology involves creating an experimental design that enables one to forecast filled Rx’s for all possible combinations of label claims (and, possibly prices) by testing a minimum number of combinations. Each profile (combination of claims) is shown to a separate group of doctors, i.e., each doctor in the research sees and evaluates only one profile.

The data generated from the doctor research are translated into real world behavior, just as in a single concept ScriptCAST exercise. This results in quantification of the maximum potential share that could be achieved by launching with any potential profile (and possibly any given price), and the uptake curve for that profile. The simulators for each combination will forecast TRx’s for any given tactical plan.

The QUANJOINT methodology, coupled with the forecasting powers of ScriptCAST_Simulation also makes it possible to place a real world dollar value on any single claim or combination of claims. This makes ScriptCAST Simulation a very valuable tool to use years before a product is launched, when a company is deciding which clinical trials to pursue in order to enhance the brand’s commercial prospects.

Price Elasticity
The ScriptCAST Simulation Methodology can be and has been used to produce price elasticity curves with real-world validity. These curves can be generated through ScriptCAST Simulation using two different research approaches.

If the label claims are up in the air, the QUANJOINT methodology is used to produce the price elasticity curve for any combination of claims. Using this methodology, both label claims and prices are systematically varied in the field research. Each doctor sees and evaluates only one combination of claims and price. Price elasticity curves are created for any possible combination of label claims by fitting a curve to the forecasts (for that combination of claims) at each tested price point.

If the brand profile or concept has been determined, four or more groups of doctors are exposed to that concept or profile. Each group is shown a different price. This results in forecasts of maximum potential share and TRx’s at each price. A curve is fitted to the forecasts at the tested prices, so that demand can be forecasted at intermediate price points within the range of the ones tested.