DTC ADVERTISING SIMULATION

PBE’s ScriptCAST DTC™ Simulation has been specifically adapted to address the unique problems posed by DTC campaigns. For example, DTC campaigns can generate incremental volume for the advertised brand by bringing in individual’s who are not currently treated for the medical condition at all. It can cause individuals who are currently treated with a competitive medication to request and receive the advertised brand. It can increase the compliance rates and persistency rates of individuals currently using the advertised brand. It can increase the probability that the physician prescribes the advertised brand for individuals who don’t request it. ScriptCAST DTC can capture, or model, all of these sources of incremental business.

ScriptCAST DTC utilizes a methodology that addresses the specific dynamics of the prescription drug process, which, in many of its respects, deviates significantly from the OTC dynamic. For example, the probability that an individual requests the medication has to be determined, the probability that the physician grants the request has to be determined, the probability that the patient fills the Rx has to be determined. This last component is especially important. Most patients requesting a medication they’ve seen advertised have no idea what it costs. For those without third party coverage, this is an extremely critical issue. If, when they arrive at the pharmacy, they discover that the medication costs $85 a month, they may not fill the Rx at all. This is known as the "sticker-shock" factor. Depending upon age group and the nature of the condition being treated, the percent of patients without third party coverage for the DTC-advertised brand can vary anywhere from 20% to 40%, or higher. Even individuals with co-pay plans will often opt not to switch to the advertised drug when they discover a co-payment is necessary or that the co-payment is greater than what they have been paying for a competing drug.

To assure that the DTC-advertising forecast does not overstate the incremental business generated by the campaign, it is necessary to subtract out all those Rx’s filled in response to requests that would have been filled anyway had the requests not been made. The logic of the final model for the forecast, for any time interval, is:

(A x B x C x D)-(A x B x C x D x E)

where,

A=awareness
B=probability that patient requests the brand
C=probability that physician grants patient’s request
D=# of patients
E=probability that the brand will be given without patient’s request

METHODOLOGY

Patient Arm

Study Design

• PBE will access NFO’s or MarketTools’ panel. A sample will usually be drawn so as to assure 1,200 returns per cell.
  
  

  The sample will be balanced with respect to:

  • Age
    
  • Geography
    
  • Education
    
  • Income
    
  • # of people in household
    
  • Ethnicity/Race

• Each respondent will receive a self-administered mail questionnaire containing the advertising stimulus, the questions whose responses are necessary to generate the inputs for the consumer model
  
• The returns will be weighted to reflect the original outgo

Questionnaire

The self-administered mail questionnaire will elicit the following information after the respondent is exposed to the stimulus:

• The one action respondent would most likely take as a result of reading the description (5-point scale)
  
  
• Respondent’s likelihood to ask physician about using the brand during next visit (5-point scale)
  
  
• (For those without medical plan/insurance that covers prescription drugs) Likelihood of respondent’s filling the brand Rx if it costs $X per month (5-point scale)
  
  
• How likely respondent feels that the brand is to live up to what was said about it (5-point scale)
  
  
• How unique respondent feels the brand is (5-point scale)
  
  
• Whether respondent feels the brand addresses a problem or need respondent has (2-point scale)
  
  
• Is so, whether respondent feels the brand solves that problems or meets that need (2-point scale)
  
  
• Importance to respondent of solving that problem or meeting that need (5-point scale)
  
  
• How disappointed respondent would be if the brand were not made available to treat the problem described in concept (5-point scale)
  
  
• Whether respondent has any concerns about the brand (2-point scale)
  
  
• If so, what those concerns are (2-point scale)

Physician Arm

Study Design

• A disproportionate stratified random sample will be selected from a database provided by the client large enough to generate the required number of returns per cell. The sample of each cell will precisely reflect the prescribing habits of the physicians who have at least one filled Rx in the most recent year.
  
  
• Each respondent will receive a self-administered mail questionnaire containing the professional promotion or professional promotion + DTC advertising stimulus and the questions whose responses are necessary to generate the inputs for the physician model.
  
  
• Since the professional-promotional message will be the same irrespective of the DTC campaign that proves most profitable, there will be one cell to determine the incremental share/volume of the professional promotion unaided by any DTC advertising.
  
  
• Each additional cell will see both the professional-promotional message and the DTC stimulus. The difference between the incremental share/volume generated by the DTC + professional-promotion cells and the professional- promotion-alone cell represents the incremental value of the DTC campaign.
  
  
• The returns will be weighted to reflect the original outgo.

Questionnaire

The self-administered mail questionnaire will elicit the following information

• Allocation of 100 points among the competitive frame
  
  
• Exposure to stimul(us)i
  
  
• Re-allocation of 100 points among existing competitive frame
  
  
• When physician is most likely to start prescribing the brand

Media Planning

Even if a DTC campaign can be profitable, how profitable it actually is will depend on the media plan. A ScriptCAST DTC™ Simulator can be made to account for the reach, frequency and timing of TV, radio and print within audience segments.

What if scenarios can be run to determine how each would play out in the real world before selecting the most financially advantageous plan. Better yet, the media plan can be optimized to best allocate a given budget, achieve a given amount of incremental business at the minimum cost or achieve a pre-specified marginal ROI. The later approach is the one that maximizes shareholder value.

MINIMUM DELIVERABLES

• The incremental brand share/volume generated by the DTC positionings/concepts
  
  
• The share/volume impact of the detail message on physicians likelihood to Rx the brand proactively
  
  
• The share/volume impact of the detail message on physicians likelihood to grant requests for the brand as a result of DTC advertising
  
  
• The incremental share/volume impact of DTC advertising on physicians likelihood to Rx the brand proactively
  
  
• A TRx share/volume uptake curve for each positioning/concept (as well as optimal approach if optimal approach is different from one of the individual approaches is tested) as a function of dollars/TRPs vs. current DTC